In one of the classes this week, I was asked whether there has been any research on the impact of polling on public opinion and behaviour. The answer is a resounding yes! I asked my former polling colleagues and current academic colleagues, and they suggested the following:
- Bursztyn, Cantoni, Funk, and Yuchtman (2019), ‘Polls, the Press, and Political Participation: The Effects of Anticipated Election Closeness on Voter Turnout’: https://home.uchicago.edu/bursztyn/Bursztyn_Cantoni_Funk_Yuchtman_20190208.pdf
- Utych and Cam (2014), ‘Viability, Information Seeking, and Vote Choice’: https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1017/S0022381613001126?mobileUi=0&journalCode=jop
- Morton, Muller, Page, and Torgler (2015), ‘Exit polls, turnout, and bandwagon voting: Evidence from a natural experiment’: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0014292115000483
I also undertook a quick search myself and turned up these articles:
- McAllister and Studlar (1991), ‘Bandwagon, Underdog, or Projection? Opinion Polls and Electoral Choice in Britain, 1979-1987’: https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.2307/2131577
- Irwin and van Holsteyn (2002), ‘According to the Polls: The Influence of Opinion Polls on Expectations’: https://www.jstor.org/stable/3078698?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents
- Restrepo, Rael, and Hyman (2009), ‘Modeling the influence of polls on elections: a population dynamics approach’: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11127-009-9427-x
Hopefully that’s enough to sate your interest, at least for the time being!
Joe Greenwood-Hau 